METHOD & TRACK RECORD
We show our work.
We keep score.
INFLCT tracks slow, structural shifts — the forces that reshape markets over years, not the daily tape. Most research asks you to trust its conclusions. We publish ours in a form that can be checked, and wrong.
The method
Every thesis is a single falsifiable statement — a claim about structure with a timeframe attached, not a vibe. Alongside it we publish the case for, the case against, and what would change our mind. Every factual claim behind a thesis is sourced and dated before it ships, and classified by how much weight it can carry: company disclosure, official data, analyst estimate, or our own inference.
Then we score it. Conviction is a 0–100 read of the evidence — how convergent it is, how independent the sources are, how seriously the disconfirming case survived. It is not a price target, and it is capped when the sourcing is thinner than the story. When new evidence moves the argument, the score moves and the date updates. When the falsifier triggers, the thesis is closed and stays on the record.
The score, kept
Below is every thesis currently on the public board: the conviction it opened at, where it stands today, and the move between the two — rendered live from the same data the board runs on. Nothing here is retyped, and closed calls don't vanish.
What we are not
INFLCT publishes structural intelligence, not financial advice. Conviction reflects our own structural assessment — never a price target, never a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Where a thesis names the layer of the market the exposure sits in, that is a map, not a tip. Do your own research.